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Will the Continental Infrastructure Modernization Act pass both chambers of the Federal Assembly of Vantia before March 31, 2027?

73/100elevated
0255075100

The outcome is produced by an institutional decision, which widens the circle of people who know it early.

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D1Outcome ControlLevel 4 · Institutional decision
Weight 30%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The outcome is produced by votes of a legislature — an institutional decision.

by both the House of Representatives and the Senate of the Federal Assembly of Vantia
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 5 · Large or unbounded
Weight 20%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

Whip counts, leadership intentions, and lobbying spread outcome-relevant knowledge across an effectively unbounded population.

pending scheduling for a floor vote in both chambers
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 4 · Ambiguous
Weight 25%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

Rules restraining legislators or staff from trading this contract on this venue are unclear at best.

as recorded in the official Assembly voting records
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 2 · Official roughly scheduled
Weight 15%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

Final votes are public official events held on roughly known schedules; everyone observes the result as it happens.

by roll-call or recorded voice vote
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 4 · Small group
Weight 10%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

Chamber leadership can time or block the outcome — declining to schedule the vote manufactures a NO.

if the current legislative session ends before passage
  • This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
  • This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.