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Will Bitcoin close at or above $120,000 on December 31, 2026?
3/100low
No structural early-knowledge advantage is apparent: the outcome is produced and disclosed in ways no participant controls.
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View the Somnia registry ↗D1Outcome ControlLevel 1 · Natural process
The outcome is large-scale market data that no identifiable party controls.
the BTC/USD closing price on Coinbase
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 1 · None
The settlement value is public the instant it exists; there is no early-knowledge window.
last traded price at 23:59:59 UTC
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 1 · Prohibited enforced
No early-knowledge window exists (D2 level 1), so there is no insider to constrain.
Coinbase BTC-USD last traded price
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 1 · Fixed schedule
Everyone observes the closing price at the same fixed moment.
at 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 2 · Prohibitively costly
Moving the global bitcoin price across a strike would cost far more than any plausible stake could recover.
greater than or equal to $120,000.00
- This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
- This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.