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Will Bitcoin close at or above $120,000 on December 31, 2026?

3/100low
0255075100

No structural early-knowledge advantage is apparent: the outcome is produced and disclosed in ways no participant controls.

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D1Outcome ControlLevel 1 · Natural process
Weight 30%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The outcome is large-scale market data that no identifiable party controls.

the BTC/USD closing price on Coinbase
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 1 · None
Weight 20%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The settlement value is public the instant it exists; there is no early-knowledge window.

last traded price at 23:59:59 UTC
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 1 · Prohibited enforced
Weight 25%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

No early-knowledge window exists (D2 level 1), so there is no insider to constrain.

Coinbase BTC-USD last traded price
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 1 · Fixed schedule
Weight 15%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

Everyone observes the closing price at the same fixed moment.

at 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 2 · Prohibitively costly
Weight 10%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

Moving the global bitcoin price across a strike would cost far more than any plausible stake could recover.

greater than or equal to $120,000.00
  • This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
  • This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.