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Will Celebrity Z publicly announce a breakup with their partner before September 30, 2026?
95/100high
The outcome is decided by a single person who faces no effective restriction on trading it.
Circuit breakerCB-1: this market's outcome is decided by one person not clearly barred from trading it, so the score is floored (80/90/95 by how weak that bar is) regardless of the other dimensions.
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View the Somnia registry ↗D1Outcome ControlLevel 5 · Individual will
The outcome is one person's discretionary choice to make an announcement.
a public statement by Celebrity Z or their verified representatives
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 3 · Handful
The subject and their immediate circle know before any announcement, with no formal control regime.
the end of their current relationship
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 5 · Unconstrained
Nothing prevents the subject or their circle from trading the contract themselves.
Celebrity Z or their verified representative publicly announces
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 5 · Discloser controlled
The announcement moment is chosen by the party with the stake in the outcome.
on any platform
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 5 · Unilateral cheap
The subject can produce the outcome unilaterally at trivial cost.
publicly announces the end of the relationship
- This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
- This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.
- CB-1 floor 95 applied (D1 at level 5, D3 at level 5)