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Will US CPI year-over-year inflation for August 2026 exceed 3.0%?

19/100low
0255075100

No structural early-knowledge advantage is apparent: the outcome is produced and disclosed in ways no participant controls.

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D1Outcome ControlLevel 2 · Statistical procedure
Weight 30%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The outcome is produced by a government statistical procedure following a predefined, published methodology.

as published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 2 · Embargoed few
Weight 20%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

CPI figures are known inside the BLS under a formal pre-release embargo before the scheduled release moment.

scheduled for September 2026 at 8:30 AM ET
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 2 · Prohibited weakly enforced
Weight 25%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

Government staff face legal trading restrictions and 2026 saw the first CFTC prosecutions over event contracts, but enforcement on prediction venues is still novel.

as first published by the BLS
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 1 · Fixed schedule
Weight 15%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The outcome reaches everyone simultaneously at a fixed, pre-announced official release time.

in its monthly CPI news release for August 2026
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 1 · Impossible
Weight 10%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

No party can plausibly manufacture a national price statistic to win a bet.

the year-over-year percentage change in CPI-U
  • This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
  • This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.