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Will Candidate A win the 2026 gubernatorial election in State X?

21/100low
0255075100

No structural early-knowledge advantage is apparent: the outcome is produced and disclosed in ways no participant controls.

Legacy provenance

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D1Outcome ControlLevel 3 · Public collective
Weight 30%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The outcome is the aggregate of votes cast by a large public; no single participant meaningfully controls it.

the November 2026 gubernatorial election
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 1 · None
Weight 20%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

The result emerges from public counting; no closed group knows the certified outcome before the tally is public.

officially certified result
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 1 · Prohibited enforced
Weight 25%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

No early-knowledge window exists (D2 level 1), so there is no insider to constrain.

certified as the winner by the State X electoral authority
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 2 · Official roughly scheduled
Weight 15%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

Certification follows a known post-election schedule, though counting duration varies.

officially certified as the winner by the State X electoral authority
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 2 · Prohibitively costly
Weight 10%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

Manufacturing an election outcome would require fraud at prohibitive cost and legal risk.

the officially certified result
  • This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
  • This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.