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Will the FOMC cut the federal funds target rate at its September 2026 meeting?

49/100moderate
0255075100

The outcome is produced by an institutional decision, which widens the circle of people who know it early.

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D1Outcome ControlLevel 4 · Institutional decision
Weight 30%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The outcome is produced by a committee vote of a government institution.

the Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 4 · Dozens
Weight 20%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

Between the vote and the statement, committee members plus senior staff know the decision — dozens of people, under blackout rules.

announced at the conclusion of its September 2026 meeting
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 2 · Prohibited weakly enforced
Weight 25%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

FOMC participants are barred from trading under post-2022 ethics rules with real enforcement, but coverage of prediction venues is untested.

the September 2026 FOMC statement
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 1 · Fixed schedule
Weight 15%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The decision reaches everyone simultaneously at a fixed, pre-announced release time.

released at 2:00 PM ET on the Federal Reserve's website
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 3 · Multiparty
Weight 10%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

Producing a rate cut requires a committee majority — multiparty coordination.

the target range announced
  • This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
  • This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.