Will the FOMC cut the federal funds target rate at its September 2026 meeting?
The outcome is produced by an institutional decision, which widens the circle of people who know it early.
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View the Somnia registry ↗D1Outcome ControlLevel 4 · Institutional decision
The outcome is produced by a committee vote of a government institution.
the Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 4 · Dozens
Between the vote and the statement, committee members plus senior staff know the decision — dozens of people, under blackout rules.
announced at the conclusion of its September 2026 meeting
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 2 · Prohibited weakly enforced
FOMC participants are barred from trading under post-2022 ethics rules with real enforcement, but coverage of prediction venues is untested.
the September 2026 FOMC statement
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 1 · Fixed schedule
The decision reaches everyone simultaneously at a fixed, pre-announced release time.
released at 2:00 PM ET on the Federal Reserve's website
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 3 · Multiparty
Producing a rate cut requires a committee majority — multiparty coordination.
the target range announced
- This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
- This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.