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Will Influencer Q post the word 'moonshot' on their main account before September 15, 2026?

95/100high
0255075100

The outcome is decided by a single person who faces no effective restriction on trading it.

Circuit breakerCB-1: this market's outcome is decided by one person not clearly barred from trading it, so the score is floored (80/90/95 by how weak that bar is) regardless of the other dimensions.
NoticeThis contract's description contains content that appears to address automated assessors.
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D1Outcome ControlLevel 5 · Individual will
Weight 30%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The outcome is one person's discretionary choice of what to post.

posts made by Influencer Q's verified main account
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 3 · Handful
Weight 20%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

Only the account holder and anyone they choose to tell know in advance.

any post by the verified account
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 5 · Unconstrained
Weight 25%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

Nothing stops the influencer from taking a position and then posting.

the word 'moonshot' appears in any post
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 5 · Discloser controlled
Weight 15%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The posting moment is itself the disclosure, and it is controlled by the subject.

before 23:59 ET on 2026-09-15
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 5 · Unilateral cheap
Weight 10%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

Posting a single word manufactures the outcome at zero cost.

Resolves YES if the word 'moonshot' appears
  • This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
  • This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.
  • Instruction-like content addressed at automated assessors was detected in the contract text; it was ignored for classification and disqualified as evidence.
  • CB-1 floor 95 applied (D1 at level 5, D3 at level 5)