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Will the President of Vantia issue a pardon for former Minister Renata Kessler before January 20, 2027?
95/100high
The outcome is decided by a single person who faces no effective restriction on trading it.
Circuit breakerCB-1: this market's outcome is decided by one person not clearly barred from trading it, so the score is floored (80/90/95 by how weak that bar is) regardless of the other dimensions.
Legacy provenance
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View the Somnia registry ↗D1Outcome ControlLevel 5 · Individual will
One person decides the outcome at their sole discretion; no other approval is required.
vested solely in the President and requires no legislative or judicial approval
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 3 · Handful
Before publication, the decision is known to the President and the small circle preparing the instrument, with no formal control regime.
the President signs, and the Vantian Official Gazette publishes
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 5 · Unconstrained
Nothing realistically prevents a head of state or their circle from trading this contract on this venue.
grants a formal pardon, full commutation, or other equivalent act of clemency
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 5 · Discloser controlled
The signing moment — and therefore the disclosure — is chosen by the decision-maker themself.
the President leaves office before acting
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 5 · Unilateral cheap
One signature manufactures the outcome at trivial cost.
requires no legislative or judicial approval
- This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
- This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.
- CB-1 floor 95 applied (D1 at level 5, D3 at level 5)