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Will the Solendra protocol's 'Aurora' hard fork activate on mainnet by November 30, 2026?

68/100elevated
0255075100

The outcome is produced by an institutional decision, which widens the circle of people who know it early.

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D1Outcome ControlLevel 4 · Institutional decision
Weight 30%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

The outcome is produced by the coordinated action of a development organization and validator set.

the Solendra Core development team successfully activates the 'Aurora' hard fork
D2Knowledge CircleLevel 4 · Dozens
Weight 20%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

Much of the process is public, but readiness and postponement decisions are known to the core team and insiders before any announcement — dozens of people.

targeted for mid-November 2026 per Solendra Improvement Proposal SIP-47
D3Insider TradabilityLevel 4 · Ambiguous
Weight 25%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

Developers and validator operators face no clear trading constraint; any foundation policies plausibly do not reach this venue.

a supermajority of Solendra mainnet validators
D4Disclosure SynchronicityLevel 2 · Official roughly scheduled
Weight 15%Confidence highAgreement 1/1

Activation is observable on-chain by everyone at once, on a roughly known schedule.

as measured by the protocol's own on-chain signaling mechanism
D5Outcome ManufacturabilityLevel 4 · Small group
Weight 10%Confidence mediumAgreement 1/1

A small core group can time the outcome — announcing a postponement manufactures a NO resolution.

formally postponed past November 30, 2026 by a published Solendra Core announcement
  • This score reflects the structural risk of the event type, not live detection of insider activity in this market.
  • This is not a prediction of the outcome and not trading advice.